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Hi, and welcome to the Neil
Ashton Podcast.

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In each episode, we explained
some of the fascinating ways

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that science and engineering are
changing the world around us.

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We talked to leading engineers
from elite level sports like

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cycling in Formula One to some
of the world's top academics to

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understand how fluid dynamics,
machine learning, supercomputing

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are bringing in a new era
discovery.

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We also hear some of their life
stories, their career advice,

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the lessons they've learned on
the way that I hope will be

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helpful to you too.
So sit back and enjoy this

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episode.
Hi, welcome back to the new

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Ashton podcast.
I thought I'd do something

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interesting today, which I was.
I was looking back at the

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previous episodes and I saw that
almost a year ago today I did an

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episode called the Future of CFD
Five key trends to watch.

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It was season 2 episode 2 and I
thought I will try and do

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another version of that and
basically see a year on, was I

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right or was I wrong?
So what I had as the five were

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the rise of GP, us in CFDAI and
machine learning, shift to cloud

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computing, digital
certification, and I think I had

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the last one which was mergers
and acquisitions.

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OK, Now this was before I joined
NVIDIA.

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Oh, I should just say.
So obviously Nvidia's you know,

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creates GPUs.
So the rise of GPUs in CFD.

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Can I answer that with an being
completely unbiased?

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Probably not, but it's true.
Basically, there has been an

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unbelievable rise in GPS for
CFDI.

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Can say that even if I wasn't
working for NVIDIA, I think

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people in the community know
that to be the case.

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Has that accelerated in the past
year?

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Yes, most definitely it is.
Yeah.

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Just the number one question.
And again, I know I work for

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NVIDIA, so I'm going to say
that, but it's true.

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I go to conferences and I see it
without me even talking to them.

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You know, they're showing slides
saying, OK, it's 10 times faster

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on a GPUI did not get involved
in that study whatsoever.

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I'm just sat there listening to
it.

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So it it is absolutely the case.
And as anything there was, it

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was slower at the beginning.
People were like, OK, is this

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really true?
You know, is this marketing?

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I think now there's been so many
independent studies showing it

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that people are fully getting
behind.

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And I think what's also made the
difference is 1, the hardware's

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obviously keeps getting better
and better.

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The pace of GP us, because
obviously AI has helped.

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This is far out pacing.
CP US in terms of like

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generational generation, you
know, like the improvement that

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you get each generation is, is
like this compared to CP US,

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which is, you know, a bit
slower.

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So you're, by moving to it, you
keep getting better and better.

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So the reason to move has
probably accelerated.

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I think the, there's been a
healthy competition between

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different CFD companies each
seeing GP used to be part of

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that differentiating thing.
And that has created a, a sort

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of an acceleration, you know,
because there's one vendor

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releases AGP version number one
wants to make sure they also

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have one.
So there's been a little bit of

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that, but for good reasons.
It's not purely, you know, just

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for the sake of it.
It's because people are

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genuinely seeing a speed up
customers liking it and and

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therefore they're doing it.
And I think most interestingly,

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which is I think something I
commented on is there's a lot of

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start-ups now who are
specifically focusing their on

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GPU native.
And that has also definitely

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played a ship because no
surprise if you write code from

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scratch with a sort of software,
hardware code design, you're

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going to create something really
good.

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And so because of those
start-ups, they have shown in

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some ways the like most optimum
solution and has really shown

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some very interesting
performance.

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What I find more at a technical
level interesting is where the

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whole like unstructured implicit
finite volume, which I guess was

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the industry standard does that.
Is that the most optimum

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numerical approach on GPS?
It could be, but because they're

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so much more powerful and
because of that, you can start

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to do more transient high
fidelity LES, then people are

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going, well, if I'm going to do
an LES and I'm going to have to

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run lots of time steps and I've
got this GPU, should I maybe now

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go back to explicit that
previously wasn't maybe the

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optimum way of doing it, but now
with the GP it is.

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And then maybe could I do a, a
war modelled approach if I'm

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doing a war model, LES, and does
that mean I should maybe use the

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most boundary method because I
don't need to resolve the wall?

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And so that it's this interplay
between the hardware and the

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software is creating some really
interesting changes.

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And and finally, one of the
interesting was a high order

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side, You know, I think high
order, without going into too

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much of the technical details,
there's some interesting stuff

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around like tensor cords,
etcetera.

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So the whole high order thing is
coming back in to play.

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So yeah, was my prediction of
key trends for CFT correct, GPUs

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and CFT, I'd say yes.
And is it still for 20/25/26?

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Definitely.
It's only accelerating and I

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think you'll find that it
continues to accelerate whilst

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there is so much more learnings
to be had in terms of optimal

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architectures.
And there's like a crossover

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point when your compute gets
higher, you can go to a

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different modeling paradigm.
So for example, and not wanted

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to speak about this for too
long, you've gone from, let's

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say a wall resolved RANS like a
low Y plus RANS where you wanted

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to resolve the ball and where
you need a certain gridding

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strategy to be able to resolve
the wall to a wall modelled LES

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where you say, oh, well, I don't
need to resolve the wall because

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I'm modelling it.
So maybe I can go to a different

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gridding paradigm and I can go
to explicit.

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But if you go to the next stage,
which is the war resolved Elias,

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that maybe say, well, actually
now my gridding paradigm that

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was good for war modeled LES may
not be good for war resolved

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LES.
Maybe I need to do something

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slightly different.
So it's interesting how these

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waves happen and the, like I
said, doesn't interplay.

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So what I find most interesting
is a year ago or two years ago,

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the most bold predictions was
more towards Hybridrans, Elias,

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war modeled and everyone said
our war resolved is too far

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away.
I'm actually seeing now people

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be a bit bolder and say, well,
you know what with the latest GP

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us maybe a war resolved Elias,
it started to become possible.

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And that's interesting.
I think not for everyday

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applications perhaps, but now
that that is coming up, some

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other stuff starts to get
interesting like just the sheer

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number of time steps you need to
do.

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And yeah, so still important.
OK, AI, machine learning.

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Well, duh.
Yeah, that's clearly still a key

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trend.
Has things moved up in the last

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year?
Absolutely.

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I'd say one of the big
breakthroughs I personally seen

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is probably a year ago or a
little bit four year ago, one of

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the bottlenecks seemed to be
volume prediction using AI

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surrogates.
Stuff was coming out around like

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graph neural Nets and being able
to predict things, but all the

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examples were always on smaller
cases.

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And one of the things that I did
with some colleagues was to

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create that drive ML data set,
which was really put out there

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as a data set to give
realistically size meshes and

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hopefully encourage people to
see, right.

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Can my method take the entire
volume and a year or certainly

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two years ago, it looked like
not many people could do it.

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Everyone was just doing the
surface or maybe a few slices

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and every time you saw
something, you know in marketing

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online, it was always like the
surface of the car or a slice of

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the car.
What I found was breakthrough in

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the past year is peep various
methods have come out and I

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guess the most, most most recent
will be like Transformers that

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seem to be the most
computationally efficient.

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Efficient for doing full volume
predictions as in training on a

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full volume and then doing an
inference and being able to get

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a full volume out.
I feel like that really

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accelerated the realization that
some of these AI methods could

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give you back a flow field that
was more similar to a

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traditional one.
And yeah, that transition from

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like graphs to maybe neural
operators and Transformers for

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me has been a really interesting
1.

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And I'm certainly excited to see
what happens in the next year.

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I think we'll continue to see
new architectures, new evolution

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of, of AI.
So that is definitely a trend

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that's continuing.
Yeah.

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And they're obviously linked,
right.

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So if you have a faster solver,
you can generate data more

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easily.
You can then do the training.

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I think one of the big
discussions now is on the right

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code architecture.
Sorry, like programming

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environment, because online
training is definitely a hot

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topic.
You know, how can you take

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advantage of the transient
nature of the flow?

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So at the moment, I'd say the
state-of-the-art is normally

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that you would just generate
those data and even if it was

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with a hybrid brand or well
modelled, you'll just take a

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time average and dump that and
train on that.

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But I think what's emerging now
is this interesting, well, can I

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use some of the transient data
that's being created anyway, you

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know, dump them out at
checkpoint and train on that.

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So I think the whole AI will
continue and continue.

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The one thing that I would
probably add to that AI bucket

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is the agentic AI side.
So let's say you've got

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surrogates that's in one market
and you've got LLMS for just

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general productivity gains and
coding on the other.

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I put a gentic AI somewhere in
the middle, which is how can you

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have multiple agents working
autonomously through some sort

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of master agent that can go off
and do tasks for you.

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So instead of you having to
manually click run this

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simulation or write a Python
code that goes and runs, you'd

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said, give a text prompt saying
I would like to go and run this

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simulation with these parameters
and please create me a report.

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And you'll have a workflow where
an agent will interpret that

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request will then go and let's
say create a simulation setup

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for you.
But crucially also then run the

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simulation, let's say an HPC
cluster, use a separate, you

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know, agent could be a surrogate
model essentially, you know, to

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go run it or to do the meshing,
then another LLM, maybe do the

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analysis of the results.
And the point being is that you

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have to kick that all off with a
textbook.

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That is the most cutting edge
example.

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And that's what I feel is
probably in the next 12 months

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will be the next big jump.
And some start-ups are already

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doing it as some companies, but
I feel that's probably one of

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the big next steps.
I should add, by the way, for GP

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US, I didn't mention, I think
precision is a very interesting

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topic now.
I think there's huge gains if

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CFD can use lower precision for
for obvious reasons, you know,

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that the so much flops in in the
lower precision because of AI

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generally only needs, you know,
48 or 16.

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So it doesn't mean that you
can't do 64 or 32, but if you

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can find a way to harness that
power, then you can really

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unlock the next big accelerate.
So the first one I had was the

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shift to cloud computing.
Now, you know, people who know

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me or listened to this before
know that you know, I currently

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work from video, but I used to
work for Amazon Web Services,

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which is obviously a massive
cloud computing company.

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And there is no doubt whatsoever
that cloud computing has totally

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transformed the IT sector and
the HPC sector.

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When I left AWSI definitely saw
an increasing momentum in people

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adopting the cloud cause of the
fact that they could essentially

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focus on the stuff that mattered
to them and not on the sort of

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manual data centre stuff.
I still see that increasing, but

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probably the bit that maybe I
was not brainwashed because I'm

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joking aside a little bit.
But you I definitely, I'm seeing

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I'm still a more hybrid sense
where on one hand people are

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absolutely seeing the value of
the cloud, you know, through

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ADBS or GCP or Microsoft or you
know, all the cloud plates.

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And by the way, there's an
interesting angle now with all

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these neo clouds like core
weave, etcetera, which is mainly

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I guess to the AI some GPU
angle, but I'm still seeing a

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hybrid used.
You know, there's still quite a

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lot of on Prem, there's cloud
and and I still think there's a

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lot of room for improvements in
the way to access cloud

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resources.
You know, I think SAS from ACFD

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point of view now SAS products
are still not fully there.

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You know, if you ask most people
are they doing it software

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service?
No, they may use the cloud to

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have a cluster, but are they
doing it in a true SAS like

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manner?
I think that it's slower than I

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thought people still seem to
prefer and there's good reason.

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So we'd have to get into of
having a local experience in

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that you're not just doing
through a web browser.

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And I think that's probably just
decades of engineers being used

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to just SSH ING and stuff and
and having like, yeah, running

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scripts.
And it's something that you

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think would change, but it, it
does seem remarkably stubborn.

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And yeah, so I, I definitely see
the cloud continuing, but I'm

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still waiting for some company
to come out there and really

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make it easy from a workflow
point of view in like a true

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hybrid way or to just simplify
maybe the cloud experience.

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You still have to be quite an
expert to do it.

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So I am, I'm not changing that
prediction.

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I'm just seeing that it seems to
be a bit slower than I fully

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appreciated.
And maybe in hindsight, that's

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because I was seeing all of the
positive and success stories at

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ADBS and maybe I was not hearing
the bits where people weren't,

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you know, doing it.
The 4th 1 I had was on digital

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certification to a higher
fidelity methods that, as I

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mentioned on the 3rd of it is
definitely the case.

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You know, you're having a huge
increase of people going to

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higher fidelity methods because
of #1 you know, the fact that

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you can access to compute more
easily.

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And that is definitely a topic
that I think will continue to

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increase sector by sector.
So the automotive has definitely

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pioneered that and all have
moved to higher fidelity

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methods.
I think now, like I said,

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they're, they're looking how can
I go from hybrid RANS to war

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resolved earlier.
I think the aerospace sector is

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probably still trying to get
from RANS, you know, to hybrid

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random warm up LES and the work
that you know, we did in the

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last high lift pitch workshop
has definitely helped to push

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that forward.
And there's some interesting

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work going on now to try and
push it even further again to

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like more resolved LES.
But I see that continually, you

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know, increasing and now it's
more around building up best

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practices and understanding of
those methods, you know,

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robustness that everybody knows
where they go wrong, where they

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go right.
So it probably will take time

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for that and for people to see
the value because it is

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undeniably more expensive to do
with the low fidelity.

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So I think there needs to be
success stories that have been

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created.
But I think probably one of the

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biggest challenges is
transition.

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Certainly I'm speaking more from
ACFD and external aero point of

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view, but one of the challenges
still with even going to war

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monthly yes to hybrid is
transition modelling.

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And I, I feel that that's why
the war resolved LES is still

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very tempting because it doesn't
fully solve it, but it, it

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definitely helps to overcome
some of those challenges.

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So I think that will continue,
but I would look more at how do

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we make war resolved LES
approaches more, more

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affordable.
I am going to be doing an

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episode where we're going to
talk more on the combustion side

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of things.
I do realise that this podcast

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just tend to be a little bit
focused on external arrow.

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That's basically my background.
So I am purposely trying to,

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yeah, diversify a little bit and
make sure that we're covering

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other areas.
And the final one was mergers

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and acquisitions and
innovations.

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And this has definitely kept
going.

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We have seen ANSYS and Synopsys,
so two big companies merge.

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We have seen, you know Siemens,
Altair, Cadence, Beta, CAE.

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So this has kept going and was a
trend that I predicted and is

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still true today that there is
so much interest in the

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community aid in engineering and
semiconductor businesses that,

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you know, it's a growing
business, really important.

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And big companies are realizing
the value of acquiring or

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merging with others to, you
know, bring some of their

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technology in and speed up.
You know, that that time.

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I think that will continue.
I would say the prediction for

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next year, it's not there's not
many other big companies that

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can merge now.
You know, it has consolidated a

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little bit to Cadence, Siemens
and, and synopsis, but where I

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do see that being definitely
move is there's a lot of

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start-ups and I'm sure that the
many of those start-ups will be

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acquired by some of these bigger
companies.

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So they can start to really
bring those to a more enterprise

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level and integrate it.
So I, my prediction would be in

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the next 12 months that some of
the start-ups that you, you

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know, you may know of, I won't
mention all names, but the

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start-ups, you know, I think
you'll see some of them being

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acquired by high profile
companies just because that is,

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that's a tried and tested route.
You know, when I spoke to the

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CTO of Ansys and he openly
admitted it, he said, that's

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what we do.
We look for great start-ups.

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We may even, you know, encourage
them.

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And once they reach a certain
level, we might acquire it.

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And it, that's a great way of
developing new technology.

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Sometimes it's better to let a
start up do it.

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You have a, you know, faster way
of doing than a, let's say, a

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big enterprise.
But then they acquire them, they

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bring them, and that's how
customers get to use them.

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So I think they also still
continue.

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So where do I think things are
going?

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Well, I think actually those
five topics will still continue

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to be a thing for 25 and 26, and
I'm excited to see how they

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accelerate.
So I hope that was interesting.

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I thought I'd keep it short.
I know these podcasts tend to go

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to an hour or two hours, so I
thought I'll keep this one short

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and got a couple of really good
guests coming up for the next

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00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,560
two episodes.
So yeah, look out for those.

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And for now, I hope you enjoyed
this episode.
